Photo: Norwegian Seafood Council/FIS

Norwegian Seafood Exports Face Headwinds: Herring Sees Temporary Dip, While Mackerel Experiences Sharp Decline Amidst Soaring Prices

NORWAY
Monday, November 10, 2025, 00:10 (GMT + 9)

October 2025 data reveals a 38% drop in herring volume, largely due to a late season, while mackerel exports plummet 71% as quotas shrink and prices hit an unprecedented NOK 47.16/kg (approximately US$ 4.41/kg) for fishermen.

Oslo – Norway's pelagic seafood sector is projected to navigate a challenging October 2025, with a significant, albeit temporary, decline in herring exports and a dramatic fall in mackerel volumes, according to projections from the Norwegian Seafood Council.

Herring Exports See Temporary Decline

In October 2025, Norway is expected to export 16,796 tonnes of herring, valued at NOK 381 million (approximately US$ 35.61 million). This would represent a decrease of NOK 152 million (or 28%) in value (approximately US$ 14.21 million) and a 38% drop in volume compared to the same month in the previous year. The largest markets for herring during this period are anticipated to be Poland, Ukraine, and Lithuania.

"We must go back to 2015 to find a lower export volume of herring in the month of October. The low volume is due to a late start to the autumn season for NVG herring," explains Jan Eirik Johnsen, head of pelagic fish at the Norwegian Seafood Council. "With good fishing towards the end of the month and a higher quota than last year, we expect exports to pick up in the coming months."

Johnsen noted that fillet products are expected to dominate herring exports amidst the projected decline in volume, with Poland, Lithuania, and Germany leading as key markets. Exports of whole frozen herring and marinated products are forecast to see a significant fall compared to the previous year.

Sharp Decline in Mackerel Exports with Challenging Outlook

Mackerel exports are projected to experience an even sharper decline in October 2025, with 27,150 tonnes shipped, valued at NOK 1.3 billion (approximately US$ 121.50 million). This marks a substantial drop of NOK 1.2 billion (or 47%) in value (approximately US$ 112.15 million) and a drastic 71% reduction in volume compared to the same month in the previous year. South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam are expected to be the primary markets for mackerel in October.

"The sharp decline in mackerel exports in October reflects the fact that the fishery slowed down considerably as early as mid-September, compared with last year when a significantly larger quota was fished throughout October," Johnsen elaborated.

Adding to the volume challenges, mackerel prices are forecast to surge significantly. With the prospect of a very low quota next year, prices are expected to continue their upward trajectory in October. The average price to the fisherman is projected to reach an unprecedented NOK 47.16 per kg (approximately US$ 4.41 per kg), a stark contrast to NOK 23.84 per kg (approximately US$ 2.23 per kg) for the same month in the previous year.

"There is a lag in export prices, which for whole frozen mackerel under 600 grams is projected to reach an average of NOK 48.34 per kg (approximately US$ 4.52 per kg) in October. In some weeks in October, we could see prices to individual markets far above NOK 53 per kg (approximately US$ 4.95 per kg)," said Jan Eirik Johnsen.

The industry is expected to face a period where demand significantly outstrips supply, a situation anticipated to worsen. "There are warning signals coming all the way from the industry in Norway to customers out in the markets. Many people are wondering how this will affect the market when fish purchased from fishermen for around NOK 50 (approximately US$ 4.67) reaches consumers," Johnsen continued.

The critical question for the industry now hinges on the upcoming negotiations between coastal states regarding mackerel quotas. "The big question in the industry now is what the coastal states will come up with in their negotiations. Will there finally be a comprehensive agreement between all the coastal states that also involves a distribution of the total quota?" Johnsen concluded, highlighting the tough period ahead for the industry, both domestically and internationally, due to low mackerel volumes and unprecedented price levels.

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