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US–Russia Pollock Fillet Price Gap Widens, Frustrating European Buyers

CHINA
Tuesday, January 20, 2026, 00:10 (GMT + 9)

Rising U.S. prices, firm Russian offers, and trade barriers leave EU buyers with limited room to negotiate

As of mid-January, the global pollock fillet market has entered a phase of sharp price divergence, with U.S. and Russian suppliers moving in different directions and European buyers struggling to secure lower prices. According to Food World (Beijing), attempts by European importers to push prices down have largely failed amid tight supply and hardening supplier positions.

By mid-January, prices for U.S. single-frozen (PBO) pollock fillets continued to rise, reaching the upper end of January assessment ranges or even exceeding them in new contracts for Europe and North America. In contrast, Russian suppliers adopted an uncompromising “take it or leave it” stance, keeping offers at elevated levels despite buyer resistance.

Frozen Alaska Pollock loinles fillet block,Chemical free, Skinless, Boneless, BPO. Source: Kingsun Foods

Industry sources report that some large European buyers are still trying to negotiate contracts at USD 350–400 per ton below prevailing market prices. These bids, however, have been broadly rejected. Market participants note that such offers are based on early contracts signed in Q4 of last year with U.S. suppliers and no longer reflect current supply-demand realities.

“Some early U.S. contracts were indeed priced too low,” said a European distributor. “But now that supply is tight, buyers are becoming anxious.” A U.S. exporter added: “European downstream customers are finally realizing the raw material shortage, and many are scrambling for supplies.”

The U.S. A-season Alaska pollock fishery officially begins on January 20. Owing to difficulties in the previous B-season, around 7% of the coastal quota went unfulfilled. As a result, several processing plants must make up for 2025 contract shortfalls in 2026, pushing prices higher for the current A-season. In 2025, the United States is expected to produce approximately 122,600 tons of PBO fillets and 45,000 tons of deep-skinned fillets.

Russian PBO pollock fillet. Source: Russian Fishery

Russia, meanwhile, is projected to increase PBO production by 26% year on year to around 105,000 tons in 2025. However, only about half of this volume is destined for the European Union, with the remainder sold domestically or into Asian markets, according to Food World (Beijing).

Russian exporters have taken a notably firmer line in negotiations. Multiple sources indicate that Russian manufacturers are demanding prices roughly USD 100 per ton above European cold storage valuations, excluding tariffs. Some contracts have already been concluded at the upper end of this range. One Russian exporter stated bluntly: “We will not lower our prices. Customers who want contracts must accept this level.”

At present, many EU buyers are prioritizing contracts with U.S. suppliers, but with U.S. production capacity largely locked up, some are expected to turn back to Russian and Chinese sources. This “U.S. first, then Russia, then China” procurement strategy reflects the EU’s removal of tariff-rate quotas (ATQ) on Russian fish fillets starting in 2024, which subjected Russian products to a 13.7% import tariff. After tariff adjustments, the dutiable value of Russian fillets is about USD 130 per ton higher than comparable U.S. products.

Frozen Alaska Pollock Fillet, Skin on/Skin off. Source: Made in China -->

Russia’s pollock fillet exports to the EU are also declining. Of the 105,000 tons of PBO fillets produced in 2025, only around 60,000 tons are eligible for EU sales, down from 77,000 tons in 2024, and this figure is expected to fall further to about 55,000 tons in 2026. The decline is linked to EU sanctions, which prevent newly built or converted vessels operated by companies such as Russian Fisheries Company (RFC), Gidrostroy, and Okeanrybflot from obtaining EU registration numbers. This restriction limits their ability to export fillets directly to the EU or process them into double-frozen products in China.

Meanwhile, prices in the Chinese market for refrozen Alaska pollock fillets have also strengthened. FOB quotations for whole fillet blocks made from Russian H&G pollock have risen by about USD 50 per ton month on month, with some large processors paying above assessed ranges. Smaller processors, however, are still quoting at the lower end. Based on current CFR China prices, plus transportation and storage costs of roughly USD 150–200 per ton and EU tariffs, the dutiable price of refrozen fillets is approaching the lower end of prices for U.S. individually frozen fillets.

A Chinese processing company manager told Food World (Beijing) that, given persistently high Russian raw material prices, he prefers to “wait and see until late February or early March” before discussing 2026 orders, expecting clearer QA contract prices. He also anticipates that Russian H&G raw material prices could fall by USD 100–150 per ton after the Spring Festival (February 17 to early March) before rebounding.

U.S. Pollock Fillets, 4 - 6 oz. - Source: Gordon

On the supply side, the U.S. North Pacific Fisheries Management Council (NPFMC) has set the 2026 total allowable catch (TAC) for Bering Sea pollock at 1.375 million tons, broadly unchanged year on year. However, the Gulf of Alaska TAC has been cut by 26% to around 139,500 tons. In Russia, the Far Eastern pollock TAC for 2026 stands at 2.42 million tons, up 2% year on year, with the Western Bering Sea quota unchanged at 627,000 tons. Despite the higher quota, Russia’s actual annual production remains steady at around 2 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 87–88%.

Overall, the pollock fillet market is characterized by “firm high prices plus regional differentiation.” U.S. PBO prices continue to strengthen, Russian prices remain elevated and inflexible, and EU buyers face limited bargaining power. Constrained by sanctions, logistics, and high raw material costs, Food World (Beijing) expects global pollock fillet prices to remain volatile at high levels in the short term, with widening price gaps likely to define the industry through the first half of 2026.

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