Shrimp remains the leading export, achieving a turnover of $3.4 billion (up 22%)

Vietnam's Seafood Exports Hit Record $8.36 Billion in 9 Months, But U.S. Tariffs Signal Q4 Slowdown

VIET NAM
Thursday, November 13, 2025, 04:20 (GMT + 9)

Growth Momentum Fades: Reciprocal U.S. Tax and Global Headwinds Impact End-of-Year Outlook

Seafood exports from Vietnam reached a robust $8.36 billion cumulatively over the first nine months of 2025, marking a substantial 16% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. This performance highlights the industry’s continued positive growth despite increasing pressures.

Third Quarter Dip and U.S. Tax Impact

However, growth decelerated sharply in the third quarter. Turnover for the quarter reached $2.7 billion, an increase of 10% year-on-year, but lower than the first two quarters. This slight decline is attributed to the clear impact of the U.S.'s 20% reciprocal tax policy, which began in August.

According to Ms. Le Hang, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), the new tariff has forced many businesses to adjust their delivery plans and seek alternative markets.

Product and Market Highlights

Shrimp remains the leading export, achieving a turnover of $3.4 billion (up 22%), its highest level in the past three years. Pangasius secured the second position with $1.6 billion (up 9%), driven by recovery in CPTPP and Middle East markets. Other products like squid, octopus, shellfish, and crab all recorded double-digit growth. Tuna experienced a slight decrease due to raw material shortages and supply chain disruptions from conflicts in the Middle East.

Photo: rimf.org

China and Hong Kong retained their position as the largest import region, contributing $1.8 billion (up 34%). The U.S. reached $1.4 billion (up 8.4%) but started slowing in Q3. Exports to Japan were $1.3 billion (up 17%) and the EU totaled $884 million (up 13%). The CPTPP region was a standout growth area, increasing by 25%.

Challenges Ahead: Tariffs and Regulations

The fourth quarter and 2026 face significant headwinds. New reciprocal tariffs from the U.S., coupled with stricter regulations such as the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), pose major challenges. Furthermore, the EU’s IUU yellow card remains, restricting access to high-end markets for exploited seafood. External pressures, including exchange rate fluctuations, rising logistics costs, and competition from rivals like India, Ecuador, and Indonesia, are also compressing profits for Vietnamese enterprises.

Photo: Food Link VN Co., LTD

Q4 Forecast and 2025 Outlook

Vietnam's seafood exports are forecasted to slow down sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching only about $2.19 billion, a drop of more than 22% year-on-year. This is primarily due to the 20% reciprocal tax and the risk of high anti-dumping duties on shrimp entering the U.S. Key products like shrimp and pangasius are expected to slow, while tuna, squid, and octopus will decline sharply.

Despite the difficulties, stable demand from the EU and China is expected to provide support, helping the total turnover for 2025 reach an estimated $10.5 billion, up about 5% compared to 2024. Exports in the first quarter of 2026 are projected to continue declining due to the chain effects of the tariffs and MMPA regulation.

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