Photo: VASEP/FIS

Tilapia and Pangasius Markets Face Uncertainty Amid Tariffs and Supply Constraints

VIET NAM
Tuesday, February 11, 2025, 08:00 (GMT + 9)

The global tilapia and pangasius markets are navigating a period of uncertainty driven by potential tariff changes, supply fluctuations, and demand volatility.  

Despite relatively stable current pricing, stakeholders remain cautious, awaiting clarity on tariff policies and raw material availability, particularly given upcoming holiday season slowdowns and logistical challenges, reports VASEP the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers

Tilapia: The US tilapia market, especially for Chinese imports, is characterized by cautious trading.  While wholesale prices have stabilized somewhat due to pre-holiday stocking, unresolved supply issues and tariff uncertainty continue to exert upward pressure.  Lunar New Year and Lent-related demand has muted trading activity, with buyers holding back.  February shipments are expected to be limited due to post-holiday processing plant restarts.  A shortage of smaller-sized fish (under 2-5 oz) is impacting retail supply, as farmers focus on larger fish for increased profitability.  Regional supply remains tight, particularly in Hainan due to ongoing typhoon recovery, with Guangdong showing some improvement but still facing instability.  The potential for new tariffs is a major price driver.  Despite rumors of pre-emptive buying, market reaction has been limited so far, partly due to extended shipping times.  Increased tariffs, if implemented, could further escalate prices.

Pangasius: The US pangasius market remains slow.  While Vietnamese producers anticipate price increases, weak global demand and trade barriers like anti-dumping laws persist.  Supply fluctuations, particularly from major players like Vinh Hoan, contribute to market volatility.  Some farms are reportedly reducing production in anticipation of raw material shortages over the next 4-6 months, which could lead to price increases, contingent on demand and upcoming tariff decisions.

Tariffs:  Tariffs remain a significant concern for both tilapia and pangasius.  US policymakers' view of tariffs as revenue generators makes further duties on imports from China and Vietnam – both countries with large trade deficits with the US – a distinct possibility.  Enforcement challenges, including the potential for market distortion by poorly monitored measures and dishonest importers, add to the complexity.

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