Image: Revista Puerto / FIS

Fall in exports and increase in costs

ARGENTINA
Thursday, September 28, 2023, 01:00 (GMT + 9)

The reports prepared by CAPECA show a decrease in foreign sales of more than 7% for fishing and an increase in costs of around 997% in salaries compared to 2019 and 350% in diesel compared to September 2021. Analysis of the impact of macroeconomic measures.

In the last week, the Cámara de Armadores Pesqueros y Congeladores de Argentina presented two reports: the one it carries out monthly for exports and a special one on costs, which analyzes the impact of monetary policies, in which they conclude that they have "generated significant economic losses to exporting companies, discouraging investment and attacking job creation.” The combination of the sustained decline in exports and the rise in costs results in a critical scenario for the national fishing industry.

Exports

Total exports of Primary and Manufactured Products of Agricultural Origin totaled 26,921 million dollars during the first eight months of 2023 and of that figure the fishing sector represented 4.3%. Sales of primary products suffered a drop of 39% compared to the same period last year and those of agricultural origin of 26.5%, while the drop in the fishing sector has specifically been 7.5% until August 31.

A total of 299,082 tons were exported for a value of 1,156 million dollars, with Asia being the main destination, which contributed 493 billion dollars, followed by the European Union with 314 billion dollars; In third place is North America with less than half that of its predecessor. This ranking is explained by the type of product exported, given that illex squid was the main one in tons, followed by shrimp tails, of which a good proportion is destined for the Asian market for reprocessing.

Hubbsi hake

Source: Stockfile FIS -->

Hake fillets display positive numbers. In tons, it was exported at an average value 1% lower than last year, but demand grew by 3.7%, resulting in a positive balance in foreign currency of 2.5% compared to the same period in 2022. The main export destination It is still Brazil, which required almost 12 thousand tons, but that country's demand fell by 20% and the price by 7%; In second place is Spain, which increased its demand by 88%, paying one of the lowest prices on the market, with the exception of Russia, which paid $2,825 per ton. In total, 38,500 tons were exported for 124 million dollars.

For H&G hake or other presentations other than filet, the equation was negative, with demand falling by 5% but with a price improvement of 2% that allowed the drop in foreign currency to be 3%. The average price was $1,546 per ton. The main market was Russia, which decreased demand by 7.6% but with a price increase of 6%; followed by Jordan, which also lowered its demand by 7% and in third place Ukraine, which increased orders by 121% with a price the same as last year, but below the average price of 2023.

Shrimp Pleoticus Muelleri

<-- Source: Stockfile FIS

Whole shrimp cannot stop the downward curve: it fell 28.7% in sales and 18% in value. This implied a drop in revenue of 41.6%, being a very strong blow for the frozen shrimp companies, the main marketers of this product.

The average price was $5,484, a floor that was too low for a premium product. In total, 33,880 tons were sold for 185 million dollars and the main buyer was Spain, but demand in that country has fallen by 45%, paying the lowest price on the market, even below the average price. China has regained interest and increased orders by 30% but this is equivalent to 6,740 tons, half of what the Spanish market has required. In third place is Italy, with a 61% increase in demand but representing less than 3 thousand tons. Japan, another key market for this product, on the other hand, reduced its demand by 57% and the price in this destination fell almost 20% compared to last year.

Source: Stockfile FIS -->

Shrimp tails, as has been happening for some time, provide positive numbers in volume with a 39.8% increase in demand, but the price continues to fall, registering a drop of 4.4% as of August 31; Therefore, the income in foreign currency is not equivalent to the demand, but rather the increase was 33.7%.

In total, almost 47 thousand tons were sold for 357 million dollars, with China being the main market with 14 thousand tons, but at a value 6.7% lower, at a rate of 7,614 dollars per ton. Displaced to second place in importance was Spain with just over 7 thousand tons, which in any case meant an increase of 24% in demand and at a price similar to last year. Peru and Thailand, reprocessing destinations, increased their demand by 15% and 66% respectively, ranking third and fourth.

Illex Squid

<-- Source: Stockfile FIS

As of August 31, there are no longer squid catches that can be added. Therefore, what has been sold is practically equivalent to what has been captured and what the report shows is a drop in sales of 14%, with a price increase of 3.6%, remaining at $2,220 per ton. , which helped mitigate the impact of the drop in foreign exchange income, which was 11% compared to last year. In total, 118 thousand tons were sold for 261 million dollars.

The main market was South Korea, which was sold 13% less than in 2023 but at a 2.3% higher value, although below the average price. In second place was China, with sales 10% lower in volume, but with a price 7% higher, although in this case it was also lower than the average price. Singapore, which is in third place, paid a similar price to last year but it was the lowest of all, at $1,986 per ton. Thailand, which is in fourth place, improved the average price but demanded 40% less and Spain, which paid the best at $3,500 per ton, demanded 39.5% less than last year.

Source: Revista Puerto

Cost increase

From CAPECA they have indicated that "the different monetary policies (or the same one) that anchor (delay) the nominal exchange rate to avoid its transfer to internal prices end up exploding", which finally impacts an increase in the exchange rate, giving start to another period of delay, “generating significant economic losses for exporting companies, discouraging investment and attacking job creation.”

To advance in the report, we will clarify that the nominal exchange rate is the price of the foreign currency, in our case the dollar, and the real exchange rate is the one that is used to compare the prices of a basket of goods produced in our country with respect to to the rest of the world. On the other hand, the real multilateral exchange rate is the index that averages the nominal exchange rates with other countries and the variation levels of price indices of the countries with which Argentina has trade flows.

Regarding the Multilateral Real Exchange Rate, CAPECA points out that in the last 16 years it lost 37% in value in relation to the destination markets of our exports, “which is nothing other than the loss of competitiveness” they emphasize.

They point out that this exchange rate in August 2023 increased by 11.6% due to the impact of the devaluation of the Nominal Exchange Rate of 22% carried out by the government, but they clarify that this will be ephemeral given that this increase will quickly disappear. to liquidate due to the increase in prices.

Turning to the increase in prices, they indicate that it has had a strong impact on the industry, given that the increase in input costs was much higher than the variation in the Nominal Wholesale Exchange Rate, which is the value at which the exporter settles its sales. .

In the analysis of each particular case, it is observed that, in terms of salaries from March 2019 to August 2023, the increase in salaries was 997%, while that of consumer prices was 892% and that of wholesale exchange rate of 746%, this being one of the main inputs of the sector.

Another input of similar importance is fuel. In this case, the comparison of September 2021 with August 2023 is established and the result per cubic meter of diesel increased in Mar del Plata by 348.9% and in Caleta Olivia (Patagonia has a lower price) was 315%. while in that period the Nominal Exchange Rate had a variation of 254%.

The report lists another series of increases such as those for cases, nylon and sulfite that directly affect the double rig vessels with values of a disparity similar to the one stated above and also refers to the increase in fines applied by the State in the last three years, which reflect an increase of 389% against an increase in the nominal exchange rate of 256%, which clearly marks the divorce of monetary policy with the productive model of social inclusion that sought to make the Kirchnerist management flaunt and with which he once again, and inexplicably, takes pride in himself.

Source: Revista Puerto  (Traslated from the original in Spanish)

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