Photo: Norwegian Seafood Council/FIS

Market Analysis of Norwegian Cod: From Farming to Stockfish

NORWAY
Friday, September 05, 2025, 23:00 (GMT + 9)

Farmed Cod and Record Clipfish Prices to Portugal Offset Declining Volumes, but Consumers in Key Markets Feel the Squeeze

OSLO—Norway's cod market is facing a challenging new reality: lower quotas for wild fish are squeezing supply, yet soaring demand in key markets is pushing prices to record highs. In August 2025, the total export volume for fresh cod fell by 21%, but a surge in the value of farmed cod and high-priced clipfish is helping the industry to adapt.

According to the Norwegian Seafood Council, Norway exported 1,842 tonnes of fresh cod in August, with a total value of US$13.4 million. While the overall value fell slightly, a critical shift is underway. Exports of fresh wild cod dropped by 34% in volume, while fresh farmed cod exports increased by 6%, now accounting for a significant 44% of the fresh cod market's value.

The Rise of Farmed Cod and Frozen Exports

The growth of farmed cod is directly addressing the shortfall from wild fisheries, which are subject to tighter regulations. The Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission set the 2025 Barents Sea cod quota at a reduced 375,000 tonnes, a nearly 20% decrease from the previous year. This has made farmed cod a vital component for consumer markets like Spain and France, where it accounted for over 90% of fresh cod volumes exported in August.

Meanwhile, the frozen cod market saw its own dynamics. China emerged as the largest market for the first time this year, with an export value of US$7.2 million, a 22% increase despite flat volume. Exports of frozen edible by-products to China also grew sharply. Eivind Hestvik Brækkan, a seafood analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council, noted that key European markets like the United Kingdom and Lithuania also showed strong growth in frozen whole cod exports.

Clipfish Market Hits Historic Highs

The real success story lies with clipfish, a traditional Norwegian product made from dried, salted fish. Norway sold clipfish worth US$50.9 million in August, an 18% increase in value despite an 18% drop in volume. This was driven by a historic performance in Portugal, which received a staggering 79% of all cod clipfish exports, the highest share ever recorded.

Gudfinna Traustadottir, the Norwegian Seafood Council’s representative in Portugal, attributed this to the country's strong economic recovery and a record-breaking tourism season in 2025. However, she noted the high prices are a double-edged sword: "Fewer Portuguese are eating clipfish than before," she said, raising concerns about long-term consumption trends.

Similar price pressures are affecting other major markets. In the Dominican Republic, a 63% price increase has created a "very challenging situation for consumers," according to Ørjan Kjærvik Olsen, the country manager for new markets. In Brazil, the high cost of cod has led to a significant consumer shift towards more affordable clipfish species like saithe, ling, and tusk, with cod now making up a record-low 12% of clipfish exports to the country.

Mixed Results for Other Products

The salted fish and stockfish markets also faced headwinds. Salted fish exports dropped by 58% in volume to 371 tonnes, with a value of US$3.2 million. The stockfish market, with the United States as its largest destination, also saw a sharp decline of 58% in volume, with a value of just US$1.8 million in August.

Ultimately, while low quotas are a persistent challenge, Norway is effectively using its farmed fish sector and focusing on high-value products to maintain its export value. The question remains whether soaring prices will permanently alter consumer habits in its most important markets.

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