El Niño Phenomenon. (Image: Ministerio del Medio Ambiente Peru)

Strong or extraordinary El Niño likelihood drops to 50pc

PERU
Friday, November 06, 2015, 23:30 (GMT + 9)

The likelihood that El Niño phenomenon acquires strong or extraordinary intensity, that is to say, that it could pose an extent similar to those recorded during the summers of the periods from1982 to 1983 or from 1997 to 1998, has been reduced from 55 per cent to 50 per cent, reported the Multisector Committee in charge of the National Study of El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN).

Meanwhile, the probability that El Niño becomes extraordinary for that time of the year fell from 15 per cent to 5 per cent, while the possibility for it to become strong rose from 40 per cent to 45 per cent.

In its latest release (No. 19- 2015), the ENFEN explained that despite this decrease alertness is maintained due to the strong El Niño event that is being developed on the Peruvian coast with temperatures that are above the usual ones.

"With respect to the probabilistic forecast that the coastal El Niño takes place next summer (December 2015-March 2016), due to thermal anomalies in the eastern Pacific have been substantially presented below that seen in 1997, the ENFEN Committee has decided to reduce the likelihood that this summer will be like El Niño 1997-1998 (extraordinary)," the release points out.

"However, because the current values are similar to those of 1982 and it is expected that equatorial westerly winds continue and that they continue to generate warm Kelvin waves, it was decided the likelihood that the summer will be like El Niño 1982-1983 (strong) would be increased," it adds.

With regards to the anchovy, the report states that it maintained its scattered distribution, between Punta La Negra (6°S) and San Juan de Marcona.

In addition, the behavior of the reproductive indices showed values within the normal, which indicate a trend to end the spawning period. On the other hand, in the northern zone, the presence of species native to warm water such as fine horse mackerel and samasa continues.

Related article:

- 55pc probability of 'strong or extraordinary' El Niño, estimates ENFEN

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