Lobster from Zhangzidao, Canada origin (450g)

Canadian Lobster Prices Surge Amid Supply Shortages and Hopes for Tariff Relief in China

CHINA
Thursday, January 15, 2026, 09:30 (GMT + 9)

As of January 14, 2026, the Canadian lobster industry is navigating a volatile market defined by skyrocketing port prices and high-stakes diplomacy.

Shore prices in Nova Scotia have surged to $7.56/lb (CAD 10.50/lb), a 23.5% increase from the opening day of the season. According to reports by Food World (Beijing), this price hike reflects a jump of $1.44/lb (CAD 2.00/lb) as winter storms and tight inventories reshape the market landscape.

Supply Constraints and "Seller's Market" Dynamics

The price rally is largely driven by a combination of harsh weather and depleted inventories in North America. Tommy Amirault, president of the Canadian Cold Water Lobster Association (CLA), noted that while December 2025 saw significant sales, harvesters in Zone 34 struggled against relentless storms. Many boats were forced to operate 25 to 50 nautical miles offshore, often restricted to a single weekly window of 15 to 20 hours to haul traps.

“The peak season is over, and the current catch is sporadic,” Amirault stated, highlighting that supply is no longer keeping pace with demand. Stewart Lamont, general manager of Tangier Lobster, echoed these concerns, noting that by January 5, 2026, industry inventories were far lower than anticipated.

"December was a buyer's market, but it has become a seller's market at the beginning of 2026," Lamont observed.

Photo: Stockfile/FIS

With near-shore supplies in Maine and Massachusetts essentially exhausted, global buyers are placing immediate orders to secure remaining stock. Wholesale prices for shipments to Shanghai have reflected this urgency, rising 22% recently to approximately $11.92/lb for premium 560-670g lobsters.

High-Stakes Diplomacy: Carney’s Visit to Beijing

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney -->

The industry is now looking toward Beijing, where Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived on Wednesday, January 14, 2026, for a historic state visit. This marks the first visit by a Canadian leader to China since 2017 and comes as Canada seeks to stabilize trade relations and diversify its exports in response to shifting U.S. trade policies.

• The Tariff Impact: In March 2025, China imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on Canadian lobster and canola. This was a direct response to Canada’s imposition of a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and 25% surcharges on steel and aluminum products.

• Trade Volume Slump: Data for the first 10 months of 2025 reveals a staggering impact; China imported 14,412 tons of Canadian lobster—a 46.5% decrease in volume and a 46.2% drop in value, down to US$345 million.

• The Goal: Carney’s administration, accompanied by Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald, aims to reach an agreement that could eliminate or reduce these barriers. Exporters hope the visit will restore access to the world’s second-largest economy.

Market Outlook for 2026

While current prices remain high, analysts suggest relief may not arrive until May 2026, when the spring production season begins in other Canadian regions. Until then, the industry remains on edge, balancing the benefits of high demand against the heavy burden of international trade barriers that have significantly reduced Canada's footprint in the Chinese market.

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