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Tilapia Supply Decreases, Prices Increase: Opportunity for Vietnamese Pangasius?

Click on the flag for more information about Viet Nam VIET NAM
Thursday, May 16, 2024, 07:00 (GMT + 9)

Tilapia is one of the popular white-flesh fish species in many markets, including China and the US. However, in QI/2024, tilapia prices increased amid a supply shortage. This can be considered an opportunity for exporting Vietnamese pangasius to the US.

According to ITC, in 2023 markets was consume more than 438 million USD of tilapia. Among them, the top 5 markets consuming the most tilapia are the US, Canada, the Netherlands, the UK and France, with import values of more than 300 million USD, 33 million USD, 11 million USD, 10 million USD, respectively. and 9.4 million USD. By the end of February 2024, the US continued to be the largest importer of tilapia in the world with more than 55 million USD, down 3% over the same period last year, and China was the largest tilapia supplier for the world. this market.

Source: Wing Fung Dundee Chinese Supermarket

Also according to ITC, the US is continuously the country that imports the most Vietnamese tilapia, but by 2023, Korea will surpass the US and become the largest consumer market for Vietnamese tilapia with more than 2.5 million USD. QI/2024, Korea imported 415 thousand USD of tilapia from Vietnam, an increase of 1% over the same period last year.

QI/2024, the decrease in tilapia supply pushes tilapia prices up, especially in China and the US. Meanwhile, consumption demand in these markets does not decrease but tends to increase. This can be considered an opportunity for Vietnamese pangasius exports.

Source: Walmart -->

Tilapia prices are high in China due to low supply

QI/2024, tilapia in China is quite scarce in supply, the whole industry is recovering after farmers stopped operations last year due to low prices. Prices continue to increase until May 2024. Meanwhile, China is the largest tilapia supplier to the US. Many predictions suggest that tilapia supply will recover in China in the second quarter of this year. However, the second largest tilapia seed supplier in the region said supply is still lacking, causing high prices.

Farm-gate prices for tilapia sized 500 grams or more in Guangdong province were around 11.40 yuan/kg ($1.61/kg) in early May and 11.20 yuan/kg in Hainan province. This price is much higher than the level of 8.5 yuan/kg in the same period last year.

China is currently facing a shortage of raw materials as pond inventories in southern China continue to decline. It is predicted that raw tilapia will be released to the market in June 2024 because the fingerlings stocked at the end of last year have reached harvest size. However, farmers are still cautious when investing in new tilapia stocks.

Source: Hawai‘i Sea Grant

Tilapia supply to the US decreased

QI/2024, the US imported 19,600 tons of frozen tilapia fillets from China, worth 73.6 million USD, down 13% in volume and 8% in value compared to QI/2023.

In March 2024, the US imported 1,784 tons of fresh tilapia fillets, down 20% over the same period last year. This is the lowest level of US imports of this product in the past 12 years, mainly due to lack of goods from main suppliers such as Honduras, Mexico and Costa Rica. However, orders from Brazil and Colombia also compensated for the shortfall from the main supplying countries. QI/2024, US fresh tilapia fillet consumption will also decrease by 20% compared to QI/2023.

Source: shop.anastrading

In March 2024, imports of US tilapia products from Costa Rica continued to decrease by 27% over the same period to 285 tons and decreased by 23% to 841 tons in QI/2024.

In the last month of QI/2024, the US imported about 921 tons of fresh tilapia fillets from Colombia, down 5%; QI/2024, this country imported 2,906 tons, an increase of 5% compared to QI/2023.

For 4 consecutive years since 2019, the US has continuously maintained the market that consumes the most Vietnamese tilapia. However, in 2023, tilapia exports to the US will decline sharply and only reach nearly 1 million USD, down 71% compared to 2022 and down 75% compared to 2019.

Source: Stockfile FIS

China and the US are two important markets for Vietnamese pangasius. When the supply of tilapia in these two markets is scarce, pangasius can be a potential replacement product.

As of April 15, 2024, the total export turnover of Vietnamese pangasius to markets reached more than 495 million USD, down 1% over the same period. Of which, export value to China & HK reached 132 million USD, down 20%; Exports to the US reach 83 million USD, up 15% over the same period in 2023.

Author: Thu Hang | Vasep (Translated from the original in Vietnamese)

[email protected]


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