Antarctic krill (Euphasia superba) are a key component in the Southern Ocean ecosystem, especially in the Atlantic sector

SINTEF Breakthrough: New Models Predict Antarctic Krill Distribution for Sustainable Harvesting

Norwegian Researchers Develop Advanced Tools to Guide Fishing Fleets and Uncover Unexploited Krill Grounds in the Southern Ocean.

TRONDHEIM – Researchers at the Norwegian SINTEF research institutes, in collaboration with NTNU and industry partner Aker QRILL, have developed groundbreaking models capable of predicting the elusive distribution of Antarctic krill. Cian Kelly, a Postdoctoral Researcher at NTNU involved in the project, highlighted that this innovative work promises to significantly enhance the sustainability and efficiency of krill harvesting in the Southern Ocean, a critical ecosystem for global marine life.

Antarctic krill, a tiny crustacean, plays an outsized role in the Southern Ocean. Forming vast swarms, they are the primary food source for whales, seals, and penguins, and their fast-sinking faecal pellets are vital for carbon export to deep waters. Consequently, they are also the target of a substantial commercial fishery. Despite their ecological and economic importance, krill abundance exhibits high spatial and temporal variability, posing a challenge for sustainable management.

As part of the Centre for Research-based Innovation, SFI Harvest, a dedicated research group at SINTEF Ocean, building on previous work from the Fishguider project, tackled this challenge. The team, integrating expertise across NTNU and leveraging Aker QRILL's industry insights, combined cutting-edge technologies including high-resolution remote sensing data, ocean modeling, Lagrangian modeling (particle tracking), high-performance computing, and machine learning. This interdisciplinary approach has established a robust pathway for model-based decision support in fishing activities.

The model domain and key results from the Lagrangian model for the Antarctic Peninsula (Column 1) and South Orkney Islands (Column 2). Top row: Relative probability krill would reach South Georgia from initial sites. Bottom row: Probability a krill passes through individual grid cells in transit, showing the dominant transport pathways.Click on the image to enlarge it

One of the project's key insights reveals the profound influence of dominant ocean transport pathways on krill distribution and fishing success. Researchers found that the variability in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) significantly impacts krill recruitment to "sink" habitats like South Georgia. By simulating particle transport from "source" habitats such as the Antarctic Peninsula over a 15-year period (2006-2020), the models demonstrated that higher krill recruitment from the Antarctic Peninsula directly correlated with increased average catch values in South Georgia for that year. This critical finding enables the development of an index for krill catch potential, particularly in the notoriously uncertain South Georgia fishing region.

Krill Presence Probability as predicted by the Boosted Regression Tree model for environmental data variables from 2011:2016. Click on the image to enlarge it

The project's second major insight stems from sophisticated Species Distribution Modelling, which has identified numerous potential alternative krill fishing locations. By integrating environmental variables (like chlorophyll, iron, and sea-surface temperature) with historical krill presence/absence data from KRILLBASE, the models predicted areas with high probability of krill presence. Notably, this work suggests that southern shelf-break regions off the western Antarctic Peninsula, currently not exploited, could represent viable new fishing grounds.

<-- Cian Kelly presenting work from SFI Harvest at EGU25

"This research marks a significant step forward in our ability to manage Antarctic krill resources sustainably," stated a spokesperson from SINTEF. "By providing model-based decision support, we can help vessels navigate krill hotspots more efficiently, reducing search times and minimizing environmental impact, while also exploring new, unexploited areas to ease pressure on traditional grounds."

The groundbreaking results underscore the power of interdisciplinary collaboration and advanced computational methods in addressing complex challenges in marine resource management, paving the way for a more economically and environmentally sustainable future for the Antarctic krill fishery.

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